Exploring the pros and cons of strategic voting

Arzeena Hamir says her own campaign as BC Green candidate split the vote in the 2024 provincial election, and now she is encouraging progressive voters to vote strategically. Image used with permission.

The election is in its final stretch on Vancouver Island, and with the right side of the Canadian political spectrum mostly consolidated within one party, many progressive voters are calling for strategic voting, a strategy to align votes with the most popular party on one side of the spectrum: in this case, the left.

Political Science professor Stewart Prest from UBC explained instances where strategic voting may benefit voters in a First Past the Post electoral system.

“ It works potentially when there is a close vote between two front running parties and the voter in question has a clear preference between those two parties, even though there's a third party that they would, in a vacuum, prefer to see win,” Prest said.

He explained that in a hypothetical riding where party A on the right and party B on the left are neck and neck, and party C (also on the left) is running a more distant third, then if a voter has a preference that the stronger left party win, they might vote for B even if their usual choice would be C. In our case, party A would be Conservative, and parties B and C would be parties like the NDP, Liberals, or Greens. 

“So, that's the kind of scenario where it makes sense to engage in the kind of strategic voting,” Prest said. “But if it's hard to say which of those two more progressive parties is more likely to win, if they seem like they're polling relatively closely within a given– and if it's at the level of the riding you have to think– or if you're just not sure which has a better chance of winning. Because it's often quite hard to get a really good signal at the level of a single riding who is more likely to be ahead, then it doesn't really make as much sense. You're really just trying to guess what other people are thinking, and you're probably better off just voting for the party that you really would rather see win.”

Active community member and past Comox Valley Regional Board Director Arzeena Hamir shared her own experience having run in the recent provincial election as a Green candidate.

“In my own campaign, I ran as a BC Green in 2024. We had a split between myself and the NDP, and splitting the voters did enable a Conservative MLA to be elected. So when it doesn't work, those are the consequences. You get a non-progressive being elected because the right is consolidated.” she said.

Hamir said that the 2024 provincial election had the unique opportunity for progressive voters to not fear splitting the vote between parties on the left, as there were also two parties running on the right: the BC Conservative and BC United Parties.

“That was actually an opportunity for us to not have to vote strategically and to vote with your conscience. And that was so exciting until the United pulled out. Right? And most of the votes then consolidate around one candidate on the right,” she said.

Hamir said she does not regret running, and does not feel she should have pulled out of the race.

“I ran a campaign absolutely thinking that I could be elected. And you know, just by the number of volunteers and the amount of donations and the door knocking that we did, I thought we had the metrics and everything to cross that finish line,” Hamir said. “But what ended up happening, people did have that fear come in and they supported the older parties that they were more used to, but I ended up taking a few thousand votes away from the NDP, versus the previous provincial election in 2020. And that was enough for the conservative MLA to be elected. So, yeah, it's a pretty good example of what can happen if you've got a right, that's got just one candidate– and we had two and I began, so this was my hope. But when you just have one and then the left is split, yeah, that's what happens.”

Hamir doesn’t think that political parties and candidates should run or not run based on concerns of splitting the vote, however in the case of the federal election happening right now, she feels that once polling is showing if it is clear that one party on the left is breaking the 30% mark, the others should make way for the stronger candidate. 

“Since nobody has pulled out and the campaigns are where they are in 2025, it would be really nice for one of the candidates to signal to the other, you know, ‘polling is showing I'm weaker and I'm gonna encourage my voters to vote for you.’ I think that would be such a hero move. And that candidate would be really regarded well in the community. And then moving forward, until we can reform the way that we vote in Canada, it's a tough call,” she said.

When speaking about electoral reform, Hamir made it clear that she feels we should already have moved to Proportional Representation by now.

“It's really sad that the Liberal Party– and, you know, Justin Trudeau's kind of parting words was like, he wished he had gotten proportional representation done, well hello! Why did that not happen? It was a promise of the Liberal party and they totally backed down from it. And I really don't understand because I know the NDP wanted to support it, so the two parties themselves could have pushed that through,” Hamir said. “I think, you know, especially when larger parties get a majority in government, they have a zero incentive to reform the way that the system works. And that's unfortunately what's happened back and forth in our parliament and it just really has done a number on vote– and you see like lower and lower voter turnout because people don't feel that their votes count.”

Professor Stewart Prest shared a bit of humour on the subject.

“The joke I sometimes tell is that proportional representation in Canada will eternally be the choice of the party that finishes third, and that if you are finishing first and you are in control of government, you don't really have a strong incentive to change the rules. And if you finish second, then well, you're just a hair's breadth away from holding power yourself and so you want to try again the next time around. And it's only if you are in third place or after that you might say that, ‘well maybe the way we count votes is not fair as it could be,’” he said.

Prest said that because of this, demand for change is unlikely to come from the “political class,” or from the parties themselves, and would have to originate elsewhere, such as through citizens demanding institutional reform.

In the meantime, under the current First Past the Post system, Arzeena Hamir feels that the issue of strategic voting in the North Island–Powell River riding this election is not only a matter of importance as a progressive voter opposed to one party, but as a citizen concerned over the potential impacts of a certain candidate.

“Strategic voting on the North island is incredibly important to me because I'm seeing a candidate whose popularity is surging, who not only doesn’t represent my views, but I think holds some very toxic values in relation to First Nations, to women, LGBTQ2S+ community. And I see that the majority of our community doesn't actually believe in those types of values,” she said. “So I want to see our values actually represented through who we elect. And right now it doesn't in First Past the Post, and strategic voting is the only way right now that we can ensure that those values show up in who represents us in Ottawa. So that's why it's important to me.”

The candidate she is referring to is Conservative Aaron Gunn, who has been a common topic in the media recently, following calls from Indigenous leaders and community members for the Conservative Party to drop the candidate. This stems from past remarks Gunn has made online, stating “there was no genocide” of Indigenous people in Canada, and claiming Residential Schools were asked for by Indigenous bands. In 2021 Gunn was denied his application to run for leadership in the BC Liberal party as a direct result of these comments.

Stewart Prest added to this dialogue as well, acknowledging that similar to his previous explanation, if there is a candidate a voter would really like to see lose, and that voter has a very good idea of who has the best chance to beat them, then it makes sense to vote for that candidate rather than voting with one’s conscience.

“So this may be that kind of scenario for those who are really disturbed by some of Mr. Gunn's comments in the past, and would really like to not see him elected to represent their district, who have serious not just partisan but moral qualms about some of the things that he's stood up for in the past,” Prest said. “And then, it comes down to a question of trying to figure out who would stand a best chance of defeating them and, absent signals from the other parties within the race– and this may be the kind of situation where even on a local level, candidates might find a way to coordinate themselves, to signal that one is willing to stand aside to ensure that Mr. Gunn is not elected. But absent that kind of signal, then it really falls to the voters themselves to figure out how to, how to coordinate those votes in some other way.”

Aaron Gunn was contacted for comment, but did not respond by the publication deadline.

Arzeena Hamir has some suggestions for where curious individuals, particularly on the left, can find more information for strategizing their vote, if so inclined.

“If people are wanting to know who is the more progressive, like who can represent– ‘who should I have put my strategic vote to?’ Don't count on me, because obviously I'm partisan myself. There are a number of websites that are available in Canada, VoteWell.ca is one of them. I think Cooperate for Canada is another one. Do a search, there's a number online and they're third party, so you know I have zero connection to any of these sites. They're the ones that are putting forward the data. And so you could use that as a way to figure out who to vote for.”

No matter who you intend to vote for, General Election day is Monday April 28th and polls will be open for 12 hours; find your polling station and hours on your voter information card, or through Elections Canada’s Voter Information Service. 

For new voters there is no deadline to register, and it can be done at the polling station before casting your ballot. To vote, you must be a Canadian citizen, at least 18 years old on election day and prove your identity and current address.

Funding Note: This story was produced with funding support from the Local Journalism Initiative, administered by the Community Radio Fund of Canada. Reporting done in the Comox Valley is done in partnership with CVOX.